Monetary tightening amid heightened uncertainty: implications for emerging markets

17 March 2022

Sue Trinh, Head of Macro Strategy, Asia

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) raised policy rates by 25 basis points, as had been widely expected. The accompanying detail of the statement and press conference leaned hawkish. Sue Trinh, Head of Macro Strategy (Asia), considers the potential implications for emerging markets.

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) raised policy rates by 25 basis points, as had been widely expected. The accompanying detail of the statement and press conference leaned hawkish:

The new dot plot shows a median projection for the benchmark Fed funds rate to end 2022 at about 1.9% and rising further to about 2.8% in 2023
Fed Chair Powell signaled that a 50 bps increase remains a possibility, adding "every meeting is a live meeting"
On quantitative tightening, the Fed indicated it would come at a "coming meeting", likely as soon as May
Finally, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard dissented in favor of a half-point hike, the first vote against a decision since September 2020.

In all, the Fed is signaling a much faster pace of tightening in the face of significantly higher than previously anticipated inflation of 4.3% this year, even as it cut its forecast for GDP growth from 4% to 2.8%.

The latest disruption to global supply chains and surge in commodity prices due to the Ukraine crisis has amplified the dilemma facing major central banks, including the Fed. On one hand, these disruptions will push headline inflation (and inflation expectations) even higher; on the other, it’ll amplify the squeeze on real incomes, economic activity, and core inflation further ahead. Tightening into this environment risks exacerbating the downside risks to economic growth. There’s very little monetary policy in isolation can do to address cost-push inflation.

Yet many central banks are pushing ahead with monetary policy normalization, from Bank of Canada and European Central Bank last week, to the Fed this week. Quite apart from the questionable efficacy of tightening into a negative global supply shock, this dynamic has important implications for global liquidity. Global liquidity growth has slowed markedly—from a record 21.5% in March 2021 to 5.4% last week, the slowest rate since April 2020.¹ A declining global liquidity impulse is most relevant to emerging-markets (EM) growth and earnings, but it also has broader relevance to risk assets.

Chart 1: Annual growth in global money supply

Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Manulife Investment Management, as of 14 March 2022. YoY refers to year over year.

We’re still of the view that policymakers’ concerns over high inflation will ultimately give way to worries about slower growth. Without structural reform, the real economy is in no shape to absorb any amount of tightening. We’re aware this may sound difficult to believe, especially when the popular press has been at pains to tell us how many economies have recovered COVID-19-related damage. But no one ever asks, “is this actually good enough?”

We’ve argued that the prepandemic level of output was nothing to aspire to and that policymakers were, perhaps, aiming too low. At the end of 2019/early 2020, before anyone knew what the word COVID-19 would come to represent, this was the state of the global economy:

The World Bank described 2019 as a year during which “weak trade and investment dragged the world economy to its feeblest performance since the global financial crisis”
The International Monetary Fund noted that global growth has fallen sharply, and that the slowdown in economic activity has been “more pronounced” across EM and developing economies, with a few economies “suffering macroeconomic and financial stress”
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development noted that the global outlook was “unstable,” and notably, that “risks of even weaker growth remain high, including from an escalation of trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions, the possibility of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, and climate change”
Real global GDP finished 2021 9.5%² below its long-term trend and was in a worse shape relative to the end of June 2020. At the same time, the global debt mountain has increased to a record high of US$303 trillion. On the basis of current consensus forecasts, the GDP gap will still be 9.1% below trend at the end of 2024.²

Chart 2: World real GDP versus trend

Source: Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations, Maddison Project Database, World Bank, Macrobond, Manulife Investment Management, as of 14 March 2022.

This is what the U.S. yield curve has been signaling for months. Most prominent among those, the euro-dollar futures and, of course, the 2-year/10-year yield curves, which are flatter today than at any point in the past 18-24 months. The near inversion is happening at extremely low nominal levels, which highlights the precarious state of the global economy. In our view, attempts to rein in rampant cost-push inflation by normalizing interest rates and shrinking balance sheets look a lot like policy errors. We anticipate a dovish Fed pivot in Q3 and the Fed’s tightening cycle to ultimately fall short of the market’s current pricing¹ in terms of its pace, magnitude, and duration.

Do we need to worry about another Fed tantrum in emerging markets?

A question that we keep coming across is whether we will witness another episode of taper tantrum (like we did in 2013 and, to a lesser extent, in 2018) if and when the Fed embarks on a tapering exercise?

From a macro perspective, there are two ways to answer this question. Let’s start with the positive: broadly speaking, emerging-market economies are in a stronger position now relative to before.

In 2013 and 2018, many EMs were heavily exposed to external financing. Current account deficits were commonplace, as were limited foreign exchange (FX) reserve buffers to deal with bouts of currency depreciation. This devolved into a negative feedback loop in many instances; however, this time around, those vulnerabilities aren’t as stark.

External positions have improved—The collapse in domestic demand due to pandemic-related restrictions helped to strengthen external balances through most of 2020 and 2021. Within Asia, India and Indonesia have made strong improvements on this front. In other parts of the EM universe, South Africa and Poland stand out.
EM central banks have built up stronger FX reserve buffers—Within Asia, India and Thailand have made strong improvements on this front. Outside of Asia, the Czech Republic and Colombia stand out.
EM FX valuations aren’t as stretched—In real effective exchange rate terms, EM currencies are generally weaker relative to 2013 and therefore less prone to sharp depreciation risk. Within Asia, Singapore and Malaysia are better placed to deal with any upcoming periods of volatility relative to 2013. Latin America, however, is notably weaker on this front, with Colombia, Peru, and Chile being the most vulnerable.

That said, it’s worth noting that the nature of risk in EM has changed in important ways.

The growth differential between EM economies and developed-market economies has narrowed
In our view, the economic growth outlook for EM is relatively more depressed versus 2013 and 2018. The traditional growth advantage EM offers relative to developed markets has been eroding for years and is a phenomenon that predates COVID-19.
Real interest rates in EM are generally more negative
Real interest rates in most EM economies are in negative territory. This implies that regardless of how high nominal interest rates in EM economies may seem, they might not be able to prevent foreign capital outflows should the Fed’s tapering trigger capital flight. Some EM economies have begun to tighten policy to head off this risk at the expense of lower economic growth.
Fiscal positions among EM economies are generally weaker
The pandemic has depressed tax revenues just as governments were ramping up public spending in the face of the pandemic. As a result, fiscal deficits widened sharply across EM. Wider fiscal deficits mean higher public debt-to-GDP ratios. While EM economies tend to have lower debt levels than their developed peers (where debt typically exceeds 100% of GDP), they won’t have a free hand to use central-bank-funded fiscal stimulus to support economic activity. In our view, EM economies with high debt and heavy dependence on foreign capital could risk a severe test of policy credibility if the Fed tapers.
EM reliance on international funding conditions is generally higher
Whether EM policymakers can support their local economies amid continued COVID-19 outbreaks in the event the Fed tapers will also depend on a number of additional factors. Key among them is the degree to which government finances rely on international funding conditions—even if most debt issuance is denominated in the local currency, governments may still be exposed to international conditions if foreign investors own a high proportion of their local-currency debt.
Some EM economies have become more reliant on foreign-ownership in the local debt and equity markets
Another constraint on policy action is the risk of disorderly portfolio outflows. EM economies with a high level of foreign ownership in local debt and equity markets relative to official foreign exchange reserves are at the greatest risk. Where foreign ownership is low compared with central bank foreign exchange reserves, such as in India, policymakers have greater scope for action, all else being equal.

Chart 3: EM economies are running out of space for conventional monetary easing
Current real policy rate versus 10-year average (%)

Source: National central banks, National Statistic Offices, Macrobond, Manulife Investment Management, as of 14 March 14 2022.

The March FOMC meeting told us that the Fed is still prepared to proceed with rate hikes to fight near-term inflation. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks and risk aversion remain elevated and looks set to continue rising. Add in an extended stagflationary environment and we’ll be looking at macroeconomic conditions that are typically not conducive for EM; however, should investors throw the baby out with the bathwater? The answer, in our view, is “No.” In fact, a comprehensive analytical approach reveals a high degree of differentiation within this asset class. As such, relative value can be captured in a diversified manner, even amid bouts of heightened global market volatility.

That said, it’s clear that investors will likely need nerves of steel in the coming weeks and months. The determined effort by global central banks to normalize rates amid heightened uncertainty and low visibility isn’t likely to help. Without meaning to sound glib or opportunistic, we believe this is an environment that favors an active investment approach. Investors should proceed with caution.

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1 Bloomberg, Macrobond, Manulife Investment Management, as of 14 March 2022.

2 Bloomberg, Macrobond, Manulife Investment Management, as of 14 March 2022.

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Certain sub-funds invest in securities of small and medium sized companies in the relevant markets. This can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger and more established companies.
Certain sub-funds concentrate their investments in a single country and/or a particular industry sector are subject to greater risks than diversified investments in several countries and/or regions and across sectors.
Certain sub-funds may invest directly in certain China A shares via Stock Connect, which may involve in risk related to Investments via Stock Connect and Mainland China investment.
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The sub-funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. A sub-fund may at its discretion pay dividend out of capital or gross income while charging / paying all or part of its fees and expenses out of its capital. This amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share of the respective share classes after the distribution date.
Certain sub-funds with significant exposure to Renminbi (“RMB”) bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, may involve debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with the world's more established markets.
A bond sub-fund may hold a significant portion of assets in deposits if there are not sufficient RMB instruments for it to invest in. This may adversely affect its return and performance.
Certain sub-funds using invest directly in debt instruments/shares via QFII regime, the Bond Connect and/or the Foreign Access Regime are subject to various requirements and restrictions under the laws of Mainland China related to investment in QFII and/or China Interbank Bond Market and custodial risks.
RMB is not freely convertible and is subject to exchange controls and restrictions.
Certain sub-funds may have significant concentrated exposures to particular industry sectors and geography's, which subjects investors to concentration and equity market risk.
Certain sub-funds may invest in equities of small- and mid-capitalization companies, which can expose investors to liquidity and volatility risks, and is subject to greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger capitalization companies.
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Certain funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
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General Risk Disclosure

Funds offered on this platform may invest in equity, fixed income securities, exchange-traded funds, collective investment schemes and/or other instruments, including derivatives, and each of which has its specific investment objective/ policy with its specific features and different risk profile.
Distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution and the amount/rate of dividends are not guaranteed. Dividend of certain share/unit classes, at the fund or the investment manager’s discretion, may be paid out of capital or gross income while charging / paying all or part of its fees and expenses out of its capital. This amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share/unit of the respective share/unit classes after the distribution date.
Some funds may invest in bonds or debt securities which may be subject to credit, liquidity, counterparty and market risks.
Some funds may invest in non-investment grade bonds and unrated securities which may be subject to greater credit and liquidity risks, and may be more volatile than higher rated securities. Some funds may invest in investment grade debt securities, which may be subject to ratings downgrades by the rating agencies that may affect the net asset value of the fund.
Some funds may invest in derivative instruments which may involve additional risks. (For example, leverage may cause greater volatility.)
Some funds may make extensive use of derivatives including more complex derivative instruments or strategies to achieve the investment objective, this may give rise to additional exposure in that performance may rise or fall more than it would have done otherwise. In adverse situations, the fund’s use of derivative instruments may become ineffective and the fund may suffer significant losses. The use of derivatives may give rise to leverage, liquidity, counterparty and valuation risks.
Some funds may invest in emerging economies or markets, where special risks, including liquidity, volatility, government policies, taxation, currency, currency repatriation, political and regulatory risks, may be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more developed economies or markets.
Some funds may invest in securities of small and/or medium sized companies in the relevant markets. This can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger and more established companies.
Some funds may invest in a single country/region and/or a particular industry sector which may be concentrated and subject to greater risks than diversified investments in several countries and/or regions and across sectors.
Some funds may invest directly in certain China A shares via the Stock Connect, which may involve risks related to investments via the Stock Connect and Mainland China investment.
Some funds may have significant exposure to Renminbi ("RMB") bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, which will be subject to debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more established markets.
Some funds with significant exposure to RMB bonds/equity/assets may hold a significant portion of assets in deposits if there are not sufficient RMB instruments to invest in. This may adversely affect the funds’ return and performance.
Some funds using Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (“QFII”) quota to invest directly in debt instruments/shares in Mainland China may be subject to various requirements and restrictions under the laws of Mainland China related to QFII investment and custodial risks.
Some funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
As RMB is not freely convertible, currency conversion is subject to exchange controls and restrictions. There can be no assurance that RMB will not be subject to devaluation. Insufficient amount of RMB for currency conversion or devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated class(es) of certain funds. The “Dim Sum” bond market is still a relatively small market which is more susceptible to volatility and illiquidity. Due to RMB concentration risk, the value of the funds with substantial RMB exposure may be more volatile than that of a fund having a more diverse portfolio of investments.
Some funds’ performance will be closely tied to the economic, political, regulatory, geopolitical, market, currency or other conditions in the European Economic Area and may be subject to increased liquidity, price, and foreign exchange risk.
Some funds may invest in Russia and some investments in Russian securities may be unlisted securities not dealt on a regulated market. The Russian market presents specific risks in relation to the settlement and safekeeping of securities.
Investment involves risk. Investors may expose to capital loss and should not invest solely based on the information on this website alone and should read the offering documents for details including the associated risk factors, charges and features of the funds and their share/unit classes. Past performance information is not indicative of future performance.

Manulife Global Fund

Manulife Global Fund is an umbrella fund comprising a number of sub-funds investing in equity and/or fixed income securities, each of which has a different investment objective and risk profile and may involve equity market, geographical concentration, sovereign debt, liquidity, volatility, credit downgrade, interest rate, counterparty risks. Certain investors may also be subject to the risk relating to RMB hedged share class.
The relevant distributing class of the sub-funds does not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution and the amount/rate of dividends. Dividends may be paid out of income, realized capital gains and/or out of capital of certain sub-funds in respect of Inc share class(es). Dividends may be paid out of realized capital gains, capital and/or gross income while charging all or part of their fees and expenses to capital (i.e. payment of fees and expenses out of capital) in respect of MDIST (G) and R MDIST (G) share class(es). Dividends paid out of capital of these sub-funds amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of the amount of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment and may result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value per share in respect of such class(es) of the sub-funds.
Certain sub-funds invest in emerging economies or markets, where special risks, including liquidity, volatility, government policies, taxation, currency, currency repatriation, political and regulatory risks, may be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more developed economies or markets.
Certain sub-funds invest in securities of small and medium sized companies in the relevant markets. This can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger and more established companies.
Certain sub-funds concentrate their investments in a single country and/or a particular industry sector are subject to greater risks than diversified investments in several countries and/or regions and across sectors.
Certain sub-funds may invest directly in certain China A shares via Stock Connect, which may involve in risk related to Investments via Stock Connect and Mainland China investment.
Investment involves risk. The sub-funds may expose their investors to capital loss. Investors should not invest solely based on this material and should read the offering document for details including the risk factors, charges and features of the sub-funds and their share classes.
Each sub-fund intends to use financial derivative instruments (“FDIs”) for investment, efficient portfolio management and/or hedging purposes. The use of FDIs exposes the Fund to additional risks, including counterparty/credit risk, liquidity risk, valuation risk, volatility risk and over-the-counter transaction risk.
Given RMB is currently not a freely convertible currency, payment of redemptions and/or dividend payment in RMB may be delayed due to the exchange controls and restrictions applicable to RMB. As offshore RMB (CNH) will be used for the valuation of RMB denominated Class(es), CNH rate may be at a premium or discount to the exchange rate for onshore RMB (CNY) and there may be significant bid and offer spreads and thus the value of the RMB denominated Class(es) will be subject to fluctuation. Any devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated Class(es) of certain sub-funds.

Manulife Advanced Fund SPC

Manulife Advanced Fund SPC is an umbrella fund comprising a number of sub-funds investing primarily in equity and bond securities, each of which has a different investment objective and risk level.
The sub-funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. A sub-fund may at its discretion pay dividend out of capital or gross income while charging / paying all or part of its fees and expenses out of its capital. This amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share of the respective share classes after the distribution date.
Certain sub-funds with significant exposure to Renminbi (“RMB”) bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, may involve debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with the world's more established markets.
A bond sub-fund may hold a significant portion of assets in deposits if there are not sufficient RMB instruments for it to invest in. This may adversely affect its return and performance.
Certain sub-funds using invest directly in debt instruments/shares via QFII regime, the Bond Connect and/or the Foreign Access Regime are subject to various requirements and restrictions under the laws of Mainland China related to investment in QFII and/or China Interbank Bond Market and custodial risks.
RMB is not freely convertible and is subject to exchange controls and restrictions.
Certain sub-funds may have significant concentrated exposures to particular industry sectors and geography's, which subjects investors to concentration and equity market risk.
Certain sub-funds may invest in equities of small- and mid-capitalization companies, which can expose investors to liquidity and volatility risks, and is subject to greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger capitalization companies.
Investment involves risk. The sub-funds may expose to a high risk of capital loss. Investors should not invest solely based on this material and should read the offering document for details including the risk factors, charges and features of the sub-funds.

Manulife Hong Kong Series

Manulife Hong Kong Series (“the Series”) is an open-ended unit trust comprising a number of funds primarily investing in equities, debt securities, exchange-traded funds and/or collective investment schemes, each of which has a different investment objective and risk level.
The funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. Dividends may be paid out of capital and/or out of gross income of certain funds in respect of Inc classes, while charging/paying all or part of certain funds’ fees and expenses to/out of capital of certain funds. This represents a return or a withdrawal of part of an investor's original investment amount or capital gain attributable to that amount. Distributions will result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value of the relevant units. Class AA (RMB) Inc Hedged Unit of certain funds is subject to higher distribution risks than other non-hedged unit classes.
Certain funds may involve equity market, emerging markets, Dim Sum bond market, concentration, volatility, liquidity, credit, credit ratings, below investment grade and unrated securities, credit rating downgrading, interest rates, valuation, sovereign debt, unlisted debt securities, political and regulatory, currency, foreign exchange, derivative and structured product, hedging, and distribution risks. Certain investors may also be subject to the risk relating to RMB hedged share class..
Certain funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
Certain fund is subject to the risks relating to investment in exchange traded funds, Strategic and Tactical Asset Rebalancing Strategy (“STARS”), small- and mid-capped companies, convertible bonds and the risks associated with securitised debt instruments and investments in loss-absorption features. Certain fund is a feeder fund that invests all or substantially all of its assets in another collective investment scheme (the “master fund”) and is therefore subject to the risks of investing in the master fund.
Certain fund will not have direct investments other than cash, cash equivalents and financial derivative instruments (such as futures, options and forwards).
Investment involves risk. The funds may expose its investors to capital loss. Investors should not make investment decisions based on this material alone but should read the offering document for details, including the risk factors, charges and features of the Fund and its unit classes.