Takeaways from China’s NPC Meeting & upcoming drivers for Greater China equity market

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read more
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12 March 2025

Kai Kong Chay, Senior Portfolio Manager, Greater China Equities

Wenlin Li, Senior Portfolio Manager, Greater China Equities

As we progress through 2025, Greater China equities have demonstrated strong performance, particularly Hong Kong equities, which have been supported by southbound inflows. In addition to the recent breakthroughs in AI and humanoid robot development, we observe other positive catalysts that further support the region’s market.

Greater China equities showed resilience year-to-date in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 22.1%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) gaining 23.3%, and the MSCI China Index increasing by 20.8%. (see table below)¹.

2025 year-to-date performance of Greater China equity indices¹

Indices	Total returns in USD (%)
Hang Seng TECH Index	+35.82
Hang Seng China Enterprises Index	+23.33
Hang Seng Index	+22.21
MSCI China Index	+20.83
MSCI Zhong Hua Index	+19.48
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index	+2.02

Upcoming drivers for China/HK equity market

Besides the DeepSeek AI breakthrough (which prompts acceleration of AI adoption in mainland China) and humanoid robot development, there are other positive catalysts as we move into the rest of 2025.

(1) Positive policy signals

On 24 February, Mr Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), published an article in the Journal of New Industrialization highlighting mainland China’s development priorities, particularly in fostering technologically innovative high-end manufacturing and new-industry companies.

Greater focus: Chairman Wu’s article pinpointed the high percentage of technology and new-industry businesses in the listed market and vowed to facilitate these firms’ capital-raising needs.
The CSRC reiterated its plan to implement its 16 Measures to Serve the High-level Development of Technology Enterprises (科創十六條) and Eight Measures to Further the Reform of the STAR (科創板八條). These moves will help facilitate equity listings and private-equity development.
Furthermore, the CSRC plans to implement the Six Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Measures (併購六條) and highlight notable market examples of successful M&A activity. M&A was also a key focus of the CSRC’s earlier value-up programme initiatives.

(2) Positive messages from China’s National People's Congress (NPC) meeting

The key messages from work report from China’s NPC meeting are largely in-line with our view. The targets span across various areas, which are holistic and help navigate macro uncertainties and boost domestic growth. Domestic demand is key for 2025.

Key targets and priorities announced in NPC meeting²

Areas	Details
Monetary and fiscal policy	• Budget deficit ratio set at around 4% of GDP • RMB 500 billion of new special sovereign bonds for big banks • RMB 4.4 trillion of new special local government bonds in 2025 • RMB 1.3 trillion of ultra-long special sovereign bonds • May cut required reserve ratio (RRR) and interest rates when time is appropriate • To coordinate reforms of fiscal and tax systems
Economy	• China vows to make domestic demand the main economic driver in 2025 • Gross domestic product (GDP) growth target at around 5% • CPI growth target at ~2% • Target urban unemployment rate of about 5.5% in 2025 • To carry out special initiatives to boost consumption • To maintain basic stability of the RMB • Plans 7.2% increase in 2025 defense spending
Property	• Give local governments more autonomy in acquiring homes • To expand scope of affordable housing relending
Technology	• To increase funding to bio-manufacturing and quantum technology • To develop a system of open-source models for AI & 6G technology • To support extensive application of large-scale AI models
Energy and agriculture	• Target -3% energy use per unit of GDP for 2025 • To develop intelligent new energy cars
Health Care	• To refine policy for centralized medicine procurement • China subsidy for resident medical care to be raised by RMB30 per person • To support and encourage private investment • To support cross-border e-commerce, boost logistics system • To improve policies on volume-based drug procurement

(3) Recovery pace of mainland China’s property market

Some positive data points include:

Improving new home sales in Tier-1 cities, with sales increasing by 27% year on year since the policy pivot in September 2024. Meanwhile, growth in the 30 largest cities was around 6%.
Home price recovery: Approximately 25 cities recorded month-on-month improvements from December 2024 to January 2025.
An increase in land sales: Land sales were up by 26% year on year in January 2025, with activities concentrated in eight cities.
Foreign investment participation: Besides state-owned enterprises (SOEs), foreign capital is entering the property market, with two Singaporean developers/investment funds acquiring land sites in Shanghai on 20 February.
Progressive inventory clearing: 54 out of 80 cities saw an average inventory decline of 14% in January 2025 compared with December 2023.

Housing inventory ratios fell significantly in recent months, driven by improving sales³

Housing inventory ratios fell in recent months

(4) Additional support for the mainland China banking sector

During the China NPC meeting, China announced RMB 500 billion of new special sovereign bonds for banks, which lends support to banks as well as a broad range of sectors, including consumer, property and industrials.

Our view and positioning

The AI moment has arrived! The DeepSeek breakthrough has accelerated the adoption of AI in Greater China. Many technology and AI-related sectors have outperformed the broader market year-to-date, ranging from software to edge AI, and AI PCs. Indeed, the rally has extended beyond software and hardware names.
Expect more innovation for the humanoid robot industry: The dancing robots on CCTV during the Lunar New Year celebrations were another milestone for mainland China. It is a key beneficiary of the global robotic supply chain, with many global and domestic customers. In the past, machine learning was limited to self-reinforcing software algorithms. The advancement of large language models (LLMs) and GenAI has made a great leap into the field of robotics, accelerating how physical machines learn through natural language, imitation, and simulation!

Dissecting the humanoid body⁴

Dissecting the humanoid body

The development of autonomous driving is faster than expected: Autonomous vehicles are technically robots with three primary outputs: (1) a steering wheel, (2) the accelerator pedal angle and (3) the brake pedal.

A leading auto manufacturer launched 21 refreshed models for 2025 (priced at around RMB200,000 and below) with autonomous driving functions, including highway navigate on autopilot (NOA) and parking pilot largely standardised, while the entry price remains the same (i.e. for free). This should create more competition among industry players to innovate ahead.

Positioning

The recent development and encouraging technological breakthrough are positive drivers for Greater China equity markets in 2025. We continue to favour technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) and platform companies (with AI adoption acceleration, advanced manufacturing companies with go-global strategies, edge AI beneficiaries (e.g. AI smartphones and AI PCs), as well as the robotic supply chain.

Flow data Year-to-date 2025

• Mainland China’s southbound flows remain strong.

Southbound continued to lead the buying in the region (+USD 16 billion in January 2025, +USD 20 billion in February 2025).
Southbound saw its third largest weekly buying in history, strong inflows of USD 9.6 billion week-on-week (USD 36 billion year- to-date) as of 28 February 2025.
The Hong Kong market’s turnover and performance have been highly concentrated in TMT stocks, whereas Southbound flows have been more diversified (SOEs plus the technology and consumer segments).

Turnover in both A-share and H-share markets accelerated in January and February 2025

Source: Wind, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, HSBC GR, as of 26 February 2025. February 2025 data is up to 24 February 2025.

Conclusion:

We see positive catalysts which further support the Greater China equity markets. These include supportive policies aimed at addressing the capital-raising needs of innovative high-end manufacturing and new-industry companies, a series of domestic growth measures announced during the NPC meeting, a recovering mainland property market, and potential additional recapitalization in the mainland banking sector. As we anticipate more innovation in the humanoid robot industry and faster development in autonomous driving, we continue to favour technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) and platform companies, advanced manufacturing companies with go-global strategies, edge AI beneficiaries, as well as the robotic supply chain.

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1 Bloomberg, data as of 6 March 2025. Total returns in USD. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

2 NPC meeting, 5 March 2025.

3 Source: GS research, 11 February 2025.

4 Morgan Stanley Research.

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Some funds’ performance will be closely tied to the economic, political, regulatory, geopolitical, market, currency or other conditions in the European Economic Area and may be subject to increased liquidity, price, and foreign exchange risk.
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Certain sub-funds invest in securities of small and medium sized companies in the relevant markets. This can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger and more established companies.
Certain sub-funds concentrate their investments in a single country and/or a particular industry sector are subject to greater risks than diversified investments in several countries and/or regions and across sectors.
Certain sub-funds may invest directly in certain China A shares via Stock Connect, which may involve in risk related to Investments via Stock Connect and Mainland China investment.
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Each sub-fund intends to use financial derivative instruments (“FDIs”) for investment, efficient portfolio management and/or hedging purposes. The use of FDIs exposes the Fund to additional risks, including counterparty/credit risk, liquidity risk, valuation risk, volatility risk and over-the-counter transaction risk.
Given RMB is currently not a freely convertible currency, payment of redemptions and/or dividend payment in RMB may be delayed due to the exchange controls and restrictions applicable to RMB. As offshore RMB (CNH) will be used for the valuation of RMB denominated Class(es), CNH rate may be at a premium or discount to the exchange rate for onshore RMB (CNY) and there may be significant bid and offer spreads and thus the value of the RMB denominated Class(es) will be subject to fluctuation. Any devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated Class(es) of certain sub-funds.

Manulife Advanced Fund SPC

Manulife Advanced Fund SPC is an umbrella fund comprising a number of sub-funds investing primarily in equity and bond securities, each of which has a different investment objective and risk level.
The sub-funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. A sub-fund may at its discretion pay dividend out of capital or gross income while charging / paying all or part of its fees and expenses out of its capital. This amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share of the respective share classes after the distribution date.
Certain sub-funds with significant exposure to Renminbi (“RMB”) bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, may involve debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with the world's more established markets.
A bond sub-fund may hold a significant portion of assets in deposits if there are not sufficient RMB instruments for it to invest in. This may adversely affect its return and performance.
Certain sub-funds using invest directly in debt instruments/shares via QFII regime, the Bond Connect and/or the Foreign Access Regime are subject to various requirements and restrictions under the laws of Mainland China related to investment in QFII and/or China Interbank Bond Market and custodial risks.
RMB is not freely convertible and is subject to exchange controls and restrictions.
Certain sub-funds may have significant concentrated exposures to particular industry sectors and geography's, which subjects investors to concentration and equity market risk.
Certain sub-funds may invest in equities of small- and mid-capitalization companies, which can expose investors to liquidity and volatility risks, and is subject to greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger capitalization companies.
Investment involves risk. The sub-funds may expose to a high risk of capital loss. Investors should not invest solely based on this material and should read the offering document for details including the risk factors, charges and features of the sub-funds.

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The funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. Dividends may be paid out of capital and/or out of gross income of certain funds in respect of Inc classes, while charging/paying all or part of certain funds’ fees and expenses to/out of capital of certain funds. This represents a return or a withdrawal of part of an investor's original investment amount or capital gain attributable to that amount. Distributions will result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value of the relevant units. Class AA (RMB) Inc Hedged Unit of certain funds is subject to higher distribution risks than other non-hedged unit classes.
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Certain funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
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Investment involves risk. The funds may expose its investors to capital loss. Investors should not make investment decisions based on this material alone but should read the offering document for details, including the risk factors, charges and features of the Fund and its unit classes.

General Risk Disclosure

Funds offered on this platform may invest in equity, fixed income securities, exchange-traded funds, collective investment schemes and/or other instruments, including derivatives, and each of which has its specific investment objective/ policy with its specific features and different risk profile.
Distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution and the amount/rate of dividends are not guaranteed. Dividend of certain share/unit classes, at the fund or the investment manager’s discretion, may be paid out of capital or gross income while charging / paying all or part of its fees and expenses out of its capital. This amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share/unit of the respective share/unit classes after the distribution date.
Some funds may invest in bonds or debt securities which may be subject to credit, liquidity, counterparty and market risks.
Some funds may invest in non-investment grade bonds and unrated securities which may be subject to greater credit and liquidity risks, and may be more volatile than higher rated securities. Some funds may invest in investment grade debt securities, which may be subject to ratings downgrades by the rating agencies that may affect the net asset value of the fund.
Some funds may invest in derivative instruments which may involve additional risks. (For example, leverage may cause greater volatility.)
Some funds may make extensive use of derivatives including more complex derivative instruments or strategies to achieve the investment objective, this may give rise to additional exposure in that performance may rise or fall more than it would have done otherwise. In adverse situations, the fund’s use of derivative instruments may become ineffective and the fund may suffer significant losses. The use of derivatives may give rise to leverage, liquidity, counterparty and valuation risks.
Some funds may invest in emerging economies or markets, where special risks, including liquidity, volatility, government policies, taxation, currency, currency repatriation, political and regulatory risks, may be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more developed economies or markets.
Some funds may invest in securities of small and/or medium sized companies in the relevant markets. This can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger and more established companies.
Some funds may invest in a single country/region and/or a particular industry sector which may be concentrated and subject to greater risks than diversified investments in several countries and/or regions and across sectors.
Some funds may invest directly in certain China A shares via the Stock Connect, which may involve risks related to investments via the Stock Connect and Mainland China investment.
Some funds may have significant exposure to Renminbi ("RMB") bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, which will be subject to debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more established markets.
Some funds with significant exposure to RMB bonds/equity/assets may hold a significant portion of assets in deposits if there are not sufficient RMB instruments to invest in. This may adversely affect the funds’ return and performance.
Some funds using Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (“QFII”) quota to invest directly in debt instruments/shares in Mainland China may be subject to various requirements and restrictions under the laws of Mainland China related to QFII investment and custodial risks.
Some funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
As RMB is not freely convertible, currency conversion is subject to exchange controls and restrictions. There can be no assurance that RMB will not be subject to devaluation. Insufficient amount of RMB for currency conversion or devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated class(es) of certain funds. The “Dim Sum” bond market is still a relatively small market which is more susceptible to volatility and illiquidity. Due to RMB concentration risk, the value of the funds with substantial RMB exposure may be more volatile than that of a fund having a more diverse portfolio of investments.
Some funds’ performance will be closely tied to the economic, political, regulatory, geopolitical, market, currency or other conditions in the European Economic Area and may be subject to increased liquidity, price, and foreign exchange risk.
Some funds may invest in Russia and some investments in Russian securities may be unlisted securities not dealt on a regulated market. The Russian market presents specific risks in relation to the settlement and safekeeping of securities.
Investment involves risk. Investors may expose to capital loss and should not invest solely based on the information on this website alone and should read the offering documents for details including the associated risk factors, charges and features of the funds and their share/unit classes. Past performance information is not indicative of future performance.

Manulife Global Fund

Manulife Global Fund is an umbrella fund comprising a number of sub-funds investing in equity and/or fixed income securities, each of which has a different investment objective and risk profile and may involve equity market, geographical concentration, sovereign debt, liquidity, volatility, credit downgrade, interest rate, counterparty risks. Certain investors may also be subject to the risk relating to RMB hedged share class.
The relevant distributing class of the sub-funds does not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution and the amount/rate of dividends. Dividends may be paid out of income, realized capital gains and/or out of capital of certain sub-funds in respect of Inc share class(es). Dividends may be paid out of realized capital gains, capital and/or gross income while charging all or part of their fees and expenses to capital (i.e. payment of fees and expenses out of capital) in respect of MDIST (G), R MDIST (G) and F MDIST (G) share class(es). Dividends paid out of capital of these sub-funds amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of the amount of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment and may result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value per share in respect of such class(es) of the sub-funds. Fixed yield share classes pay out a pre-determined annualized fixed percentage of their NAV, which can be adjusted by the Directors with at least one month’s prior notice, do not entirely reflect the actual or expected income or performance of the Fund. These distributions may exceed the actual income, leading to capital erosion, especially during negative returns or losses, and may reduce future capital growth. A positive distribution yield does not guarantee a positive return, and the absolute distributions vary with the NAV, resulting in fluctuating monthly payouts for investors.
Certain sub-funds invest in emerging economies or markets, where special risks, including liquidity, volatility, government policies, taxation, currency, currency repatriation, political and regulatory risks, may be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with more developed economies or markets.
Certain sub-funds invest in securities of small and medium sized companies in the relevant markets. This can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger and more established companies.
Certain sub-funds concentrate their investments in a single country and/or a particular industry sector are subject to greater risks than diversified investments in several countries and/or regions and across sectors.
Certain sub-funds may invest directly in certain China A shares via Stock Connect, which may involve in risk related to Investments via Stock Connect and Mainland China investment.
Investment involves risk. The sub-funds may expose their investors to capital loss. Investors should not invest solely based on this material and should read the offering document for details including the risk factors, charges and features of the sub-funds and their share classes.
Each sub-fund intends to use financial derivative instruments (“FDIs”) for investment, efficient portfolio management and/or hedging purposes. The use of FDIs exposes the Fund to additional risks, including counterparty/credit risk, liquidity risk, valuation risk, volatility risk and over-the-counter transaction risk.
Given RMB is currently not a freely convertible currency, payment of redemptions and/or dividend payment in RMB may be delayed due to the exchange controls and restrictions applicable to RMB. As offshore RMB (CNH) will be used for the valuation of RMB denominated Class(es), CNH rate may be at a premium or discount to the exchange rate for onshore RMB (CNY) and there may be significant bid and offer spreads and thus the value of the RMB denominated Class(es) will be subject to fluctuation. Any devaluation of RMB could adversely affect the value of investors’ investments in the RMB denominated Class(es) of certain sub-funds.

Manulife Advanced Fund SPC

Manulife Advanced Fund SPC is an umbrella fund comprising a number of sub-funds investing primarily in equity and bond securities, each of which has a different investment objective and risk level.
The sub-funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. A sub-fund may at its discretion pay dividend out of capital or gross income while charging / paying all or part of its fees and expenses out of its capital. This amounts to a return or withdrawal of part of an investor’s original investment or from any capital gains attributable to that original investment, and may result in an immediate reduction of the net asset value per share of the respective share classes after the distribution date.
Certain sub-funds with significant exposure to Renminbi (“RMB”) bonds/equity/assets or emerging markets, may involve debt instrument, credit/counterparty, concentration, liquidity, volatility, currency, tax, economic, foreign exchange/multi-currency conversion, down-grading, regulatory and political risks and these risks could be substantially higher than the risks normally associated with the world's more established markets.
A bond sub-fund may hold a significant portion of assets in deposits if there are not sufficient RMB instruments for it to invest in. This may adversely affect its return and performance.
Certain sub-funds using invest directly in debt instruments/shares via QFII regime, the Bond Connect and/or the Foreign Access Regime are subject to various requirements and restrictions under the laws of Mainland China related to investment in QFII and/or China Interbank Bond Market and custodial risks.
RMB is not freely convertible and is subject to exchange controls and restrictions.
Certain sub-funds may have significant concentrated exposures to particular industry sectors and geography's, which subjects investors to concentration and equity market risk.
Certain sub-funds may invest in equities of small- and mid-capitalization companies, which can expose investors to liquidity and volatility risks, and is subject to greater risk than is customarily associated with investments in larger capitalization companies.
Investment involves risk. The sub-funds may expose to a high risk of capital loss. Investors should not invest solely based on this material and should read the offering document for details including the risk factors, charges and features of the sub-funds.

Manulife Hong Kong Series

Manulife Hong Kong Series (“the Series”) is an open-ended unit trust comprising a number of funds primarily investing in equities, debt securities, exchange-traded funds and/or collective investment schemes, each of which has a different investment objective and risk level.
The funds do not guarantee distribution of dividends, the frequency of distribution, and the amount/rate of dividends. Dividends may be paid out of capital and/or out of gross income of certain funds in respect of Inc classes, while charging/paying all or part of certain funds’ fees and expenses to/out of capital of certain funds. This represents a return or a withdrawal of part of an investor's original investment amount or capital gain attributable to that amount. Distributions will result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value of the relevant units. Class AA (RMB) Inc Hedged Unit of certain funds is subject to higher distribution risks than other non-hedged unit classes.
Certain funds may involve equity market, emerging markets, Dim Sum bond market, concentration, volatility, liquidity, credit, credit ratings, below investment grade and unrated securities, credit rating downgrading, interest rates, valuation, sovereign debt, unlisted debt securities, political and regulatory, currency, foreign exchange, derivative and structured product, hedging, and distribution risks. Certain investors may also be subject to the risk relating to RMB hedged share class..
Certain funds are subject to the risks of investing in other funds and the risks relating to asset allocation strategy and/or downside risk management process.
Certain fund is subject to the risks relating to investment in exchange traded funds, Strategic and Tactical Asset Rebalancing Strategy (“STARS”), small- and mid-capped companies, convertible bonds and the risks associated with securitised debt instruments and investments in loss-absorption features. Certain fund is a feeder fund that invests all or substantially all of its assets in another collective investment scheme (the “master fund”) and is therefore subject to the risks of investing in the master fund.
Certain fund will not have direct investments other than cash, cash equivalents and financial derivative instruments (such as futures, options and forwards).
Investment involves risk. The funds may expose its investors to capital loss. Investors should not make investment decisions based on this material alone but should read the offering document for details, including the risk factors, charges and features of the Fund and its unit classes.