Skip to main content
Back

Global Macro Outlook Q3 2023: The long and winding road

Macroeconomic Strategy Team

6 July 2023

Key takeaways

  • Recession postponed, not canceled—Despite the aggressive policy tightening we’ve seen so far, economic activity in developed economies proved to be more resilient than expected amid a strong rebound in the services sector.
  • Inflation is still too sticky at uncomfortable levels—While headline inflation is easing, core inflation remains stubbornly high, and it isn’t just due to services inflation: Goods inflation is inflecting higher after a period of decline.
  • We believe central bank policy easing will be more gradual than consensus expectations—From the Bank of Canada to the Reserve Bank of Australia to Bank Negara Malaysia to the U.S. Federal Reserve, central banks around the world are proving to be more hawkish than expected.
  • Shifting geopolitics and the need for a new market playbook—There are signs that we’re entering a new global regime, requiring a rethink of how risk assets respond to changes in the macro backdrop. To be forewarned is to be forearmed. We continue to believe:

1. The market is premature in its pricing of dovish pivots from central banks, both in terms of timing and magnitude.

2. There’s a risk that even if the Fed pauses in the coming months, the next move could be more tightening, not easing.

3. Markets need to reassess the central bank put for asset prices.

 

Download the full PDF

 

 

  • Asian Credit: Three themes should propel returns in 2H 2024

    We explain how three themes should continue to support Asian credit in the second half of the year, presenting attractive opportunities for investors, particularly in the high-yield segment.

    Read more
  • Asset allocation outlook: balance of risks tilt to the downside

    Investors are navigating an environment characterized by significant global economic resilience, but with crosscurrents. We review some of the themes driving our latest asset allocation outlook.

    Read more
  • 2024 Outlook Series: Global Healthcare Equities

    2023 was a tumultuous year for equity markets and the healthcare sector. For 2024, we maintain a sense of considerable optimism for the performance of healthcare equities and the underlying key subsector themes.

    Read more
See all
  • Asian Credit: Three themes should propel returns in 2H 2024

    We explain how three themes should continue to support Asian credit in the second half of the year, presenting attractive opportunities for investors, particularly in the high-yield segment.

    Read more
  • Better income – Aim for higher, not the highest

    If we focus too much on chasing the highest yield and upfront yield generation, we could suffer from early capital depletion and miss the total return opportunity towards the later stages of the investment journey.

    Read more
  • Cash is king?

    Amid volatile market conditions and higher interest rates, seeking security by burying your savings in a deposit account is tempting. As the saying goes, “cash is king”. Or is it?

    Read more
See all